The Liberal's leadership spill

It is almost certain that Malcolm Turnbull will not be in a position where we can credibly predict that he can win a federal election for the Liberal Party. And Turnbull is simply not in the same political league as Howard. Howard lived for politics and power. He was relentless and wouldn’t give up. Turnbull has turned his hand at many ventures in a variety of fields but, unlike Howard, you have to say that he does not seem to persist when faced with a defeat. Turnbull has an incredible drive and will that took us to the republic referendum of ten years ago, but after that failed – there was nothing. It was as if his goal was to have a personal shot at changing Australia into a republic, regardless of the quality of the model on offer. He wasn’t really interested in the topic of an Australian republic in itself. He was only interested in Turnbull’s version of a republic. It was a similar story with the flag. I suspect that it will be a similar story with becoming Prime Minister. He wants to have a shot at the job, assuming that in the forays of an election campaign the electorate will go all gooey-eyed and come to see him as their gallant knight in shining armour, but if that bid fails – as it is predicted to do by any reasonable measure – he is bound to just resign and troddle off to his next grand adventure. Who knows, but there is a NSW state election in the offing where any half credible opposition leader would canter home to a win. But if Turnbull remained the leader of the federal opposition and took the Liberal Party to a disastrous loss next year, where would that leave the Liberal Party, Australian politics and the Australian people?

Of the alternative leaders on offer, Joe Hockey looks like the best candidate. Kevin Andrews has made a number of racist comments in the past and Tony Abbott knows well enough how he would be perceived by the public. Joe has a few advantages in this situation. He seems to be genuinely affable. He has a history with Rudd on the Sunrise Show and with their trek along Kokoda – so he should be seen by the public as something of a personal mate to Rudd. That means that Rudd would have to constrain his attacks on Hockey or else risk damage to his public persona as a matey bloke. The new leader would also enjoy a honeymoon period in the polls that should cover the time of the next election. At the very least, it is also the end of the year and a new leader will have a couple of months to sort out his approach for the next year before everyone returns from holidays.

A leader does not have to be an obsessive control freak to be successful. A good leader knows how to deal well with people and possesses a good sense of judgement. Joe wouldn’t have to do and know everything. He would have to manage who looks after what and when to escalate an issue to a higher priority and when to lower priorities for topics. A good leader needs to be open to a variety of views and make sure that he or she has access to an honest variety of views. Government is too complex for a control freak leader to understand. Such a leader may think that he can, but he would be only deluding himself.

OILS AIN’T OILS

The ETS that is being voted on in Parliament may not be the best way to arrange for a low-carbon economy. It gives huge handouts to polluters and it is not based on a realistic vision of how carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced. An ETS needs to be based on a realistic model of a low carbon economy. We haven’t worked that out yet. The Smart Grid with energy storage and renewables will be the key difference. The Smart Grid is only now being defined, renewables are still only at a small scale and grid-based energy storage is still only in a pilot stage of development. Waiting to see how a low carbon economy would look like and joining other advanced economies in helping to build a framework for sustainable energy systems is a prudent way to go. Delaying a flawed ETS is not to deny global warming. In this case it is about trying to work through realistic and achievable ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions globally. The quality of an ETS is important, not just the ability to brag about having done SOMETHING. Mmmm, Clean Coal eh?